(The following post WHY AMERICAN PHAROAH WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN recently appeared on thebelmont2015.com. To read it in its entirety click on the link below.)
WHY AMERICAN PHAROAH WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN
1. He has already beaten most of the rivals he will face in the Belmont Stakes. And it wasn’t close.
2. In all his races so far, he seemed to have more left in the tank. The extra distance in the Belmont Stakes should help him
3. Both trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza have been in this situation before. They know how to deal with the added pressure
4. He was the 2 year old champion and that bodes well for his Triple Crown chances. Six of the last seven Triple Crown winners were 2 year old champions.
WHY AMERICAN PHAROAH WILL NOT WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN
1. He’s a tired horse. Almost all the horses who he will face in the Belmont Stakes skipped the Preakness in order to be fresh for this race.
2. There’s a reason the 14 horses who have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness since 1978 have lost the BelmontStakes. Running this much in such a short amount of time is not easy.
3. The Belmont racetrack is different than any surface he’s raced on yet. People call the Belmont “Big Sandy” because of the deep sandy track. Other rivals have already ran over it and shown they like it.
4. Even though he won the Preakness impressively, the winning time was the slowest since 1956. His Kentucky Derby time was also relatively slow. He might not be as good as people think.